CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2023-09-22T07:36:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2023-09-22T07:36ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/27045/-1
CME Note: Faint CME seen to the NNW in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2. The CME fades away quickly in SOHO LASCO C3 imagery, and the leading edge is diffuse. Source location is likely an eruption centered around N27W02 starting around 2023-09-22T06:00Z best seen as dimming in SDO AIA 193. Arrival signature: sharp amplification of magnetic field to 27nT and increases in solar wind speed from ~300 km/s to ~500 km/s, with subsequent increases in density and temperature. Alternatively, this could be the arrival of 2023-09-14T07:24Z CME or possibly the combined arrival of these two CMEs.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2023-09-24T19:52Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-09-24T14:52Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Prediction Method: EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
Prediction Method Note:
************************************************************************************** % Compiled module: EAM ************************************************************************************** Most pr. speed = 1508.0 km/sec The EAM version you are running is: v3 Utilizing the upgraded version EAM_v3 [Paouris et al. 2021 - DOI: 10.1007/s11207-020-01747-4] u_r = 864.444 Acceleration: -1.18192 Duration in seconds: 198999.91 Duration in days: 2.3032397 ************************************************************************************** Acceleration of the CME: -1.18 m/s^2 Velocity of the CME at 1 AU: 629.2 km/s Expected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 24/09/2023 Time: 14:52 UT **************************************************************************************Lead Time: 30.77 hour(s)
Difference: 5.00 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Evangelos Paouris (UoA) on 2023-09-23T13:06Z
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